How California's Population Is Set To Change by 2030

California's population is set to reach 41 million by 2030 and remain the largest state, according to the University of Virginia's Cooper Center.

Data also shows that the state's population is set to get older over the next five years.

Why It Matters

The Cooper Center projects that population growth in the United States will increasingly shift toward the South and West in the coming decades. This trend is driven by two key factors: a rise in immigration, which often sees newcomers settling in Southern and Western states, and the relocation of many Americans from Northeastern states to states like Texas, drawn by factors such as lower taxes, more affordable housing, and warmer climates. But if the second Trump administration clamps down sharply on immigration, California's population could go back into decline as soon as next year.

Meanwhile, Georgia's aging population could have major economic and political implications for the state. These include a potentially smaller workforce and increased demand for health care services.

Rush hour traffic moves along the southbound lanes along US 101 near downtown Los Angeles on Nov. 15, 2016. California's population is set to increase by 2030. Richard Vogel/AP

What To Know

California has long been known for its rapid population growth and increasing diversity. The state has welcomed immigrants from over 60 countries, and no single racial or ethnic group makes up a majority of its population.

However, in recent years, growth has slowed significantly, averaging less than 1 percent annually over the last decade —the slowest rate in California's history, according to the Public Policy Institute.

But data from the Cooper Center shows California's population is set to grow by 4.5 percent between 2020 and 2030, from 39,538223 to 41,321,454.

Meanwhile, the data shows that California's population is on average, set to get older during this decade. This is in line with the U.S. as a whole, which is growing in population, meaning the population is also getting older. By 2030, one in five people, or more than 20 percent of the population will be over 65 years of age nationally; this amounts to about 71 million older Americans. The national median age is also going up gradually, from 38.78 years as per the 2020 Census to over 40.01 years by 2030. This means nearly half the country's population will be in their 40s and older.

In California, Cooper Center data shows that the population of 65 to 69 year olds will increase dramatically by 2030, as well as 70 to 74 year olds, 75 to 79 year olds, 80 to 84 year olds and over 85s.

Those aged between 35 and 49 will also increase, as well as those aged between 0 and 9, and 20 to 24, while every other age group will decrease.

The 75-79 year old age group will see the biggest increase, growing by 511,412. They will be followed by the 70-74 year old age group, which will increase by 430,303, and the 80-84 year old age group, which will increase by 395,049. The 20-24 age group will see the smallest increase of just 30,475.

On the other hand, the 10-14 age group will see the largest decrease, dropping by 414,443. Meanwhile, the 55-59 year old age group will decrease by over 200,000, and the 15-19 age group by over 100,000. All other age groups will see decreases of less than 100,000, with the 30-34 age group seeing the smallest decrease of 20,910.

What People Are Saying

William Frey, demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, told Newsweek: "The pandemic hit California hard due to larger domestic out migration and lower immigration, but that changed in the last two years due especially to bigger immigration from abroad. I suspect that will be the key to any long term gain in the state."

What Happens Next

California is expected to continue growing by millions in the coming decades and continue getting older. This will increase demand for critical infrastructure and public services such as education, housing, transportation, water, health care, and social welfare.

According to the California Department of Ageing, the state's older adult population is projected to reach 11.4 million—about 28 percent of the total population—by 2040.