The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an advisory warning residents across Florida to prepare for potential impacts as Hurricane Rafael approaches the state.
The storm, currently moving northward from the Caribbean, is forecast to bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds and potential flooding to parts of Florida's Gulf Coast over the coming days.
The NHC's latest advisory issued at 10 a.m. EST on Wednesday predicted tropical storm conditions in the Lower Keys, Dry Tortugas and Middle Florida Keys beginning Thursday evening and overnight but said it is too soon to determine what, if any, impact Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
According to the latest live stream update by NHC, Rafael is expected to maintain hurricane intensity Thursday through Friday as it moves northwestward across the southeastern Gulf with a more westerly track.
Spaghetti models issued by website Tropical Tidbits show a projected path of the storm.
Spaghetti models are a type of visual representation commonly used in meteorology to predict the possible paths of tropical storms and hurricanes. Each line on a spaghetti model map represents a different forecast model's projection of the storm's path over time. When many models are plotted together on one map, the lines can appear tangled or spaghetti-like, hence the name.
Forecasters use these models in conjunction with other tools to give a more complete picture of where a storm might go and how strong it could become.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and will be the 11th hurricane.
"The storm is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before it reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today," the NHC advisory said. "A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected."
Heavy rain is expected across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.
Hurricane Rafael could make landfall in the U.S. later this week, as it continues to barrel over the Gulf of Mexico.
Rafael is expected to reach western Cuba on Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico before continuing its northwestern track toward Louisiana and Texas.
With current maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the storm is projected to rapidly intensify into a Category 2 hurricane before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Forecasters plan to issue their next update later Wednesday, with expectations of further strengthening of Rafael overnight.
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